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The NWS is anticipating a severe weather outbreak today and tonight. I've received the first major alert of today:

TO: PUBLIC SAFETY AGENCIES
FM: NWS TULSA OPERATIONS
RE: WEATHER THREAT POTENTIAL
RELEASED...459 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

ALERT LEVEL...8

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...THIS EVENING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 44 WEST.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS EVENING EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AFTER MIDNIGHT
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BY EVENING. MEANWHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT FOR THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG GRADIENT WINDS GUSTING TO 35 - 45 MILES AN HOUR
WILL BE COMMON IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO THE EVENING.

A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MORE TYPICAL OF APRIL THAN JUNE
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...MUCH LIKE APRIL WILL BE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE MID LEVEL CAP IS OVERCOME.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST..INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY MID OR LATE EVENING WHILE EVOLVING
INTO A MORE LINEAR CONFIGURATION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL AFTER..OR WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL...WILL BE WEST OF I-44
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO A
LINEAR STORM CONFIGURATION IS COMPLETE. HOWEVER...THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADO FORMATION WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST
OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF BOW SEGMENTS OR WITHIN
THE STRONGEST STORM CELLS.

A MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE THE FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...
AT 40 TO 50 MILES AN HOUR AND THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MILES HOUR. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BLOW AGAIN MONDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE SOUTH TUESDAY AND INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR EARLY JUNE...AND SHOULD BE
TREATED MORE LIKE AN APRIL SEVERE THREAT. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY.

AREAS FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 44 ON WEST WILL STAND THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF A TORNADO WATCH TONIGHT.